Modest Revenue Increases Continue Through Spring
More than half of architecture firms surveyed plan to add architecture positions in 2012
From AIArchitect
By Jennifer Riskus
Architecture firms reported modest growth in revenue for the fifth
consecutive month in March, with an Architecture Billings Index (ABI)
score of 50.4 (Any score over 50 indicates increasing firm billings).
Business conditions continue to improve at firms in all regions of the
country, with the exception of those in the West, where the downturn
remains well entrenched.
In addition, firms with a residential specialization, as well as
those with a commercial/industrial specialization, both reported
increasing revenue for the seventh month in a row. Firms with a
commercial/industrial specialization have reported growth in 16 out of
the last 21 months, a positive sign that the expansion is well
established in that sector. However, business conditions remain weak for
firms with an institutional specialization, despite two months of
minimal growth in late 2011 and early 2012.
Economy rising, employment still lagging
In another positive sign, more work appears to be on the horizon.
Architecture firms have reported growth in the value of new
design/design-build contracts for the last three months. Although this
measure is not seasonally adjusted, and may be partially due to the
impact of a warmer-than-average winter across much of the country, it
should still be taken as an encouraging sign. The AIA’s quarterly
measurements of firm backlogs reveal an average length of 4.6 months,
the highest they have been since September 2008.
The general economy continued to broadcast positive signals as well,
with the latest issue of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book showing that
the economy grew at a moderate pace in March, despite some concern
about the impact of rising gas prices. Residential real estate activity
improved in all districts of the country, with the exception of the
Cleveland and San Francisco districts. Multifamily housing unit
construction increased across the board. In addition, nonresidential
construction activity increased in the Philadelphia, Cleveland,
Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis districts, and healthcare
construction expanded in the Cleveland and Chicago districts.
However, employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was more
sobering, with non-farm payroll employment adding just 120,000 new
jobs in March, half the number that had been added in each of the three
prior months. One factor leading to lower numbers was a sharp decline
in retail employment. Construction employment was essentially flat for
the month, adding just 7,000 jobs, but the architectural services
sector grew to 153,200 in February (the most recent data available)
with the addition of 1,200 jobs from January. However, since this data
is not seasonally adjusted, that growth may be partially due to
seasonal hiring for the spring.
Looking ahead to hiring
This month panelists were asked about anticipated salary and staffing
changes for 2012. Despite the fact that nearly half of the
respondents, on average, expect salaries in 2012 to be unchanged from
2011, more firms anticipate increases in salaries than expect to see
salary decreases for all types of architecture positions. Nearly half
of firms (48 percent) anticipate that guaranteed compensation for
interns on the path to licensure will increase in 2012, compared to
just 12 percent who expect it to decline. Slightly fewer respondents
(38 percent) report that compensation will increase for firm principals
and partners, compared to nearly half that amount (20 percent)
forecasting a decrease. However, more than four in 10 firms predict
that salaries will rise for both licensed architects (46 percent) and
nonregistered design professionals (44 percent), in contrast to the 15
percent and 13 percent, respectively, that anticipate declining
salaries.
In addition, more than half of architecture firms (51 percent) plan
to add positions at their firm this year, with interns and moderately
experienced architects/designers (those with four to six years’
experience) being the most popular planned additions, followed by
architects/designers with seven to 10 years’ experience.
Students/part-time staff and managers/senior managers are the third and
fourth (respectively) most popular new staff to add. Many firms that
laid off their youngest staffers during the downturn have now become
top-heavy, necessitating the addition of more young architects and other
emerging professionals as they recover from the struggling economy.
Just over 80 percent of survey panelists indicated that they do not plan
to reduce staff at their firm this year, but those that do anticipate
reductions are more likely to eliminate employees with the most
experience: 40 percent anticipate reductions in experienced
architect/designer positions.
Reference:
The ABI Work-on-the-Boards panel is open to any AIA member who is
principal/partner of their firm. Apply to join the ABI panel by
completing a brief background information form on your firm here.
About the AIA Architecture Billings Index
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics and Market Research Group,
is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine-
to 12-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction
spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report
are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a
panel of AIA member–owned firms. Participants are asked whether their
billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that
just ended, as compared to the prior month, and the results are then
compiled into the ABI. These monthly results are also seasonally
adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index
scores are centered near 50, with scores above 50 indicating an
aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a
decline. The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month
moving average. More information on the ABI and the analysis of its
relationship to construction activity can be found in the white paper “Architecture
Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction: Analysis of the
Relationship between a Billings Index and Construction Spending” on AIA.org.
Friday, April 27, 2012
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